Never has a presidency felt so much like a reality television show trainwreck than that of the newly inaugurated 45th President of the United States, Donald J. Trump. While many people across the nation and world are feeling this sentiment, it is surprising that now the Vegas oddsmakers as well as the bookmakers in London are on-board as well. Odds in Vegas and London are now assuming that President Donald Trump will resign before his four year term is complete.
In fact, the belief in this fact is so strong and widespread that all of the bookies taking bets on the presidency have now gone ahead and narrowed the odds. While many may have been making that bet long ago, few likely will do so now as the payout would be low.
These odds also include the possibility that Trump will be unwillingly removed from office via impeachment. However, because both the Senate and the House of Representatives are now controlled by a Republican majority, the likelihood that impeachment proceedings would even start, let alone result in a conviction, is highly unlikely. As such, the chances that the president will be removed from office against his will are low to say the least.
The impeachment process is complex, after all, and is designed to ensure that a sitting president is only removed with due cause and by the will of the government and the people. In order to begin the impeachment process, the articles impeachment need to be sent to the Senate by way of what is known as a simple majority (meaning there does not need to be a certain percentage or ratio of votes to put it through the House of Representatives).
In other words, 218 members of the House would need to vote for impeachment. The problem is that there are only 193 Democrats in the House and 239 Republicans. As such, 25 Republicans would need to stray across party lines to even get the articles of impeachment to the Senate to start the trial.
And even if by some miracle this were to happen, the Senate would need to pursue a trial and have what is known as a “Supermajority” of senators vote to impeach the President. In other words, 67 members of the Senate would need to vote to impeach. Again, the Republicans have the Senate majority at 52 Republicans to 46 Democrats and 2 Independents. 15 Republican Senators would have to vote to impeach in order to get the conviction.
Because of the fact that there is virtually no way that all of the stars would align to successfully impeach President Trump, odds are that he would resign before the 4 years are up. However, only one of the 44 previous presidents resigned and that was President Nixon amid the Watergate Scandal and the only reason he resigned was to avoid impeachment.
Two presidents have had impeachment proceedings and trials started, the first being President Andrew Johnson and the second was President Bill Clinton. Neither was impeached before their presidential terms were completed.
The British-based Ladlokes had odds at 3-1 that Trump would leave office early just after the election but now has them at 11-10 or near even odds. Las Vegas’s Bovada, on the other hand, have placed the odds at slightly below 2-1, paying $180 on a $100 bet if Trump resigns or is impeached.